摘要：化工厂作为危险化学品集中区域，其火灾爆炸事故具有连锁性强、传导迅速、后果严重等特点。传统风险评估方法难以应对生产过程中风险因素的复杂关联性，导致预警滞后与防控失效。本文提出基于事故树-贝叶斯网络（BN）融合的风险评估模型，建立了包括人、物、设备、环境、管理5个维度21项风险因素，构建多层级因果网络，研究引入三角模糊数-专家打分法优化参数赋值，结合GENIE软件实现风险概率推理。案例分析表明：模型计算的火灾爆炸事故基准概率为22%，后验概率与灵敏度分析识别出违规操作明火、静电积聚、金属设备电化学腐蚀等10项高风险因素，研究结果可为化工厂风险管理提供理论与实践支撑。
Abstract: Chemical plants, as concentrated areas of hazardous chemicals, are characterized by fire and explosion accidents that exhibit strong chain reactions, rapid propagation, and severe consequences. Traditional risk assessment methods often struggle to address the complex interdependencies among risk factors in the production process, leading to delayed warnings and ineffective prevention and control. This paper proposes a risk assessment model based on the integration of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Network (BN). The model establishes 21 risk factors across five dimensions: human, material, equipment, environment, and management, constructing a multi-level causal network. The study introduces the triangular fuzzy number-expert scoring method to optimize parameter assignment and utilizes GENIE software to achieve risk probability reasoning. Case analysis demonstrates that the baseline probability of fire and explosion accidents calculated by the model is 22%. Posterior probability and sensitivity analysis identify ten high-risk factors, including operating open flames in violation of regulations, electrostatic accumulation, and electrochemical corrosion of metal equipment. The research results provide theoretical and practical support for risk management in chemical plants.
订阅方式：
①在线订阅（推荐）：www.sdchem.net.cn
②邮局订阅：邮发代号24-109
投稿方式：
①在线投稿（推荐）：www.sdchem.net.cn
作者只需要简单注册获得用户名和密码后，就可随时进行投稿、查稿，全程跟踪稿件的发表过程，使您的论文发表更加方便、快捷、透明、高效。
②邮箱投稿：sdhgtg@163.com sdhg@sdchem.net
若“在线投稿”不成功，可使用邮箱投稿，投稿邮件主题：第一作者名字/稿件题目。
投稿时请注意以下事项：
①文前应有中英文“题目”、“作者姓名”、“单位”、“邮编”、“摘要”、“关键词”；
②作者简介包括：姓名、出生年、性别、民族、籍贯或出生地、工作单位、职务或职称、学位、研究方向；
③论文末应附“参考文献”，执行国标GB/T7714-2005标准，“参考文献”序号应与论文中出现的顺序相符；
④注明作者的联系方式，包括电话、E-mail、详细的通讯地址、邮编，以便联系并邮寄杂志。
欢迎投稿 答复快捷 发表迅速